How Old is Too Old?: Breakout Age Implications

Can a player be too old to have their first breakthrough fantasy basketball season? And if so, what is the age cutoff? To answer these questions, we will look at breakout age, or how old a player was when they had their first great fantasy season. In order to do this, we need to define what a breakout is. For the purposes of this experiment, what constitutes a "breakout season" is a top 50 fantasy finish (using 9-category per game scoring). Next, we need to find the ages at which a sample of players had their breakout. For this, we are going to use all first-round picks from the last 20 drafts. Out of all the first-round picks in the last 20 years who have had a top 50 season, here is the percentage of total breakouts that have occurred by age:

19 years old- 2.2%

20 years old- 10.1%

21 years old- 23.9%

22 years old- 40.0%

23 years old- 62.3%

24 years old- 78.3%

25 years old- 89.1%

26 years old- 96.4%

27 years old- 97.8%

28 years old- 99.3%

29 years old- 100%

Looking at the numbers, we can see that only 3.6% of first-round picks had their first top 50 season at the age of 27 or older. Only 5 players have managed to do this in the last 20 draft classes. Those 5 players are Marvin Williams, Tyreke Evans, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Darren Collison, and Jonas Valanciunas. Of these 5, only Valanciunas and Collison went on to have a second top 50 season and none of these late bloomers ever finished inside the top 25.

Now that we have set 27 as the age for being too old to realistically reach the top 50 for the first time, let's take a look at a list of former first-round picks that have yet to break out that will be 27 or older when the 2022-2023 season starts:

Andrew Wiggins

Jakob Poeltl

Caris LeVert

Kyle Kuzma

Marcus Smart

Derrick White

Josh Hart

All of these players are ranked inside the top 150 of Matt Lawson's (@NBADynastyADP on Twitter, a must-follow) dynasty rankings, meaning they are likely being picked in the first 10-12 rounds of startup drafts and would slot into most starting lineups. When I'm picking in the mid-rounds I'm looking for players who can take a leap and become an elite asset for my squad. And with the odds of a top 50 finish stacked against them, I am likely going to try to pivot away from the players on this list for younger players with higher upside (like Jaden McDaniels and Isaiah Stewart) or more proven veterans (like Richaun Holmes and Tobias Harris) who have already shown the ability to produce really good fantasy seasons.

By the time someone is 27, it's likely that they have shown us exactly who they are as a player. Expecting a big jump for someone like Andrew Wiggins, who had an incredible and historic playoff run, will likely result in disappointment as he reverts back to the guy we've seen for the last 8 years that doesn't provide much outside of scoring. That is not to say that he and the others on the list won't be useful fantasy options, but I view them as safer picks without much room for growth. And for that reason, I think taking them with the expectation of anything other than what they've been previously is a losing bet.